The Nature of Random Events

Albert Einstein (right) once said that "God does not play dice with the universe". He was speaking of Quantum Mechanics at a time that it was newly theorized that energy at its most minute form acts in a random and unpredictable fashion. The statement may also mark a time when what is arguably one of the greatest minds in science, ever, was just not good enough. Science since then has transcended a time when a single mind can think through our greatest theoretical challenges.

One of the realities of nature as seen through biology, is that it developed on Earth through a series of random events. Whether you're thinking about the basic origin of life or the advent of Swine Flu from Mexico in 2009, random events can not be denied. So it is fitting that we will begin our study of the core curricula in a biology class with the study of the basic phenomena of random events.

Random is a word defined within the study of mathematics and statistics as a process involving equal chances. So, any study that reports a random sampling technique requires a good deal of work to maintain a random set of occurrences. As an example, a random sample of people taken from a phone book (as many surveys are) can report a random sample. Further study, though, shows that the random sample of people in the phone book ignores people without conventional phones (land lines) or unlisted numbers. Thus the random sample from the phone book does not fully reflect a random sample of the community as a whole. It also ignores the growing population of Americans who rely on cell phones alone.

Random, is a powerful thing, said the Casino Owner to the Gambler.

Procedure: Random Sampling

In this Laboratory investigation, we're going to look into the phenomina of random events. We can do so with simple everyday tools which makes this investigation extremely repeatable and therefore an example of really good science.

We're going to look at two sets of random events from two sets of random event generators. The first is a simple set of pony beads and the other is a pair of six-sided dice. We'll be recording our results on our hand-dandy Random Event Recorder which is basically a note sheet, filled out as a model for future lab assignments.

The basic question of this lab are simple. What happens to objects when they are treated in a random manner? Or, what are the properties of the basic phenomina of random events? We'll be using two basic devices. The first is a set of pony beads which could be replaced by just about anything from rocks to gazelles. The only stipulation is that each individual should be basically same as they apply to the experiment. The second, a pair of six-sided dice, are a manufactured device that generates a more complex set of numbers because of an increased set of opportunities. A bead is simply a bead, but a six-sided die can be six different things at any given time.

You'll note, from the procedures to the below, that this lab requires some precision within five different tasks. The more manufactured device, dice, can not be dupliucated in nature, but the dice do demonstrate a more complex set of random events with a more simplistic set of procedures. That's is benifit we gain from Human technology.

Procedure: Random Sampling

 

Pony Beads		Six-sided Dice
Single Event 1. count beads in cups, assure a 50/50 distribution. 2. Choose one to experiment with. 3. Shake or stir beads in cup to assure random distribution 3. Pick one bead out of the cup without looking 5. Record the color of the bead and return the bead to the cup. 6. Pass the cup to the next person in the lab group. 7. Repeat until the entire group has picked 10 times each.		Single Event 1. Shake a die in your hand and throw in onto the table. (make sure it stays on the table) 2. Record the number on the die. 3. Pass the dice to the next person in the lab group. 4. Repeat until the entire group has thrown 10 times each.
Double Event -- Repeat the procedure above, but pick two beads at a time. Note: There is also a 2x2 Event which simply requires the same from two cups.		Double Event -- Repeat the procedure above, but throw two dice at a time.

The basic conclusion we need to take from these experiments comes from a comparision of these events. How are they different and how are they the same? One important similarity that we need to work hard to assure, is that all our results come from randomized events.

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